This is sort of a collaborative piece. When I initially watched Captain America: Civil War soon after its theatrical release I didn’t really have my thinking hat on. Over the last year or so though, many things about its plot and other story elements that don’t seem to add up when you stop and think about them have been made known to me, both by others and through my own self-discovery. I’ve had quite a few back-and-forths with a number of people about this movie and whether it really makes sense or not (mainly this gentleman and this chap), and now I can’t help but share some of the findings.
There’s a lot to go through, even just narrowing things down to a single narrative thread like the title for this post suggests, so if you’re not into what might be considered ‘overthinking it’, then this critical breakdown probably isn’t for you. I’m going to assume you’ve already watched the movie if you’re reading this, so to save on word count, I won’t be recapping the events that this sequel continues on from. The focus of this write-up should be clear from the heading.
People say that Zemo’s plan is simple and easy to understand. I don’t think that’s true. And when you see how many steps are involved in this plan of his, most of which rely on chance, you’ll see how overly convoluted it really is. (I don’t even think I’ll be able to outline all of them here.)
Now a number of the things I’m going to be listing aren’t necessarily issues, just there to help form the bigger picture. And when I do stress something as a problem with the writing, I want it to be clear that there are cases where these things can be justified. I’m not demanding strict realism here; it’s a matter of tone and consistency.
Were this movie a self-aware parody or absurd comedy (such as Hot Shots! or Kung Fury) I wouldn’t really consider these flaws. Unfortunately, Captain America: Civil War wants to be taken quite seriously. There are jokes and some weird, jarring lighthearted banter, sure, but the predominant tone is that of a story which wants to be seen as heavy, heady, and earnest. So there’s an implied (emphatic) invitation, if not urging, for the audience to look at the movie a lot more thoughtfully than something that just wants to make you laugh.
Of course, there are mixed signals from the deluge of shaky cam and rapid cuts in this movie, as well as overemphasis on mindless action and spectacle. But the point still stands: if you’re trying to be this somber and hyperdramatic, you want me to believe in what I’m seeing and take it seriously. Which isn’t to say that you can’t look at this movie as an entertaining popcorn flick, or under any similar lens. By all means, enjoy it however it pleases you. I’m simply here to draw attention to things that challenge the notion that this movie is smart and well-written.
As loathe as I am to write for the writer to the extents that this movie requires in order to make a lick of sense, there are gaps that you could fill in with reasonable justifications of your own, perhaps. But there’s even more incongruities and contradictions that make such efforts futile. You have to be extremely charitable toward this movie for almost every damn scene for it to make sense – and even then it falls apart. The storytelling is not only mind-bogglingly incomplete, it is almost constantly at odds with itself.
If you don’t want to discover the sheer stupidity this movie runs on, then I suggest that you don’t think about the whys and hows of what happened in it – and that you stop reading this before I start listing things off. Also, while Zemo’s plan does seep out into and contaminate other parts of the story, I am decidedly quarantining it to itself, because we’ll be here forever if I try to address all of those issues as well. This is not intended to be a complete breakdown of the movie. We’re just focusing on the stuff relevant to Zemo’s plan.
Let’s begin with his motivation and goal here. Zemo wants to have the Avengers break up and/or kill each other because the collateral damage they played a part in causing in Sokovia led to the deaths of his family, and he wants revenge. That’s a solid motivation for the antagonist, and makes for an interesting premise with a lot of potential in challenging the main characters’ status as ‘heroes’. I like that, and the idea of a villain understanding they’re outmatched by the heroes and deciding they would have better chance of success in taking them down by having them turn against each other is a neat and refreshing one.
His plan, however… Well, let’s go through the steps, shall we?
For clarity’s sake, I will first list two summaries of what Zemo plotted to achieve his goal. Then I’ll elaborate on each step of his grand plan.
The oversimplified version:
- Find damning evidence from the remnants of SHIELD/HYDRA (specifically the tape of Bucky Barnes killing Tony’s parents).
- Flush Bucky out of hiding.
- Lure Steve, Tony, and Bucky to a secluded area (a bunker in Siberia), and reveal the damning evidence to them, from a safe location (behind blast doors).
- Briefly revel in their fallout from the dramatic revelation.
- Leave to reminisce about family before self-terminating.
It doesn’t sound that bad when you sum it up like that. But that’s leaving a lot of factors and moving variables out of the picture. So let’s start adding some of them in.
In order to get Iron Man, Captain America and the Winter Soldier all into the same room in a bunker in Siberia – so that they watch camera footage from 1991 of Bucky killing Tony’s parents in cold blood, and cause Tony to become enraged into murdering Bucky – Zemo (believes he) needs to…
The ‘simplified’ version:
- Find someone/something who can reveal the location of the damning evidence (tape) and somehow convince them to share that information.
- Somehow get the parts for a super special mega micro bomb, build it, plant it in a van near the UN building, and detonate it from a remote location when the conference is taking place.
- As part of the bombing, disguise self as Bucky (hoping he hasn’t drastically changed his appearance in the last two years – OR, as an additional step before this, somehow identify what he currently looks like and try to mimic it) to frame him for said severe act of terrorism and several counts of murder by then allowing self to get caught on camera near the scene of the crime, so that Mr. “Ghost Story” is flushed out of hiding and detained for such crimes, but NOT killed.
- Somehow predict where Bucky will be spotted and captured, and then transported for (temporary) detainment, learn the undisclosed timetable of the meeting with the psychiatrist, find out who will be sent in to psychologically evaluate him, and fist bump the air when it turns out to be a Caucasian male of a similar height and build.
- Find said psychiatrist, kill them, and hide the body, without getting spotted.
- Somehow get the parts for a large EMP device and build it really quickly (without help), then have a courier transport it to a power station near the building where Bucky will be for later detonation when the psych meeting is taking place.
- Head into the intelligence agency in time for the evaluation ‘disguised’ as the psychiatrist, somehow knowing the security there won’t do a proper verification for ID, and somehow knowing (hoping) neither Vision nor Wanda will be there.
- Somehow predict (hope) security will be both overly lax in leaving him unattended with the detainee while in the possession of an (unchecked) electronic tablet, and also unusually severe in containing them both by locking the door on the way out (and in such a way that opening said door from the outside would not be a quick and easy thing to do)… while also remaining unusually distant from the room accommodating a distinguished psychiatrist (VIP) and an infamously super dangerous soldier assassin.
- Set off the EMP in a timely manner (somehow) to disable the cameras and use the activation phrase learned from the HYDRA files on Bucky to return him to his Winter Soldier alter (somehow confident no one will enter to stop him and Bucky won’t drown out the words to avoid being mindcontrolled), get the intel he needs from him (tape, bunker, super soldiers), and then order him to breakout.
- Hope against hope Bucky makes it out alive and undetained (despite the armed security and Avengers there), and also hope he doesn’t kill Tony or Steve there, either.
- Hope against hope Steve is able to make it out and catch up to him to learn about Zemo’s plans and follow him (with Bucky), while also being the only one to (successfully) do so.
- Hope against hope no one looks over the camera footage and puts two and two together about “the doctor”, the timing of the power outage, the interview, and Bucky breaking out.
- Hope against hope a third party will care to and be able to help Steve and Bucky get to the bunker in time.
- Hope against hope no one will stop either of them from reaching the bunker.
- Hope against hope Tony will follow, without any other Avengers in tow.
- Hope against hope they will show up around the same time as each other to all be there for the tape reveal.
- Hope against hope they don’t try using any special technology that might be able to get through the blast door protecting self (Zemo), or immediately start looking for another way into the shielded little room, or contacting reinforcements.
- Hope against hope that Tony cares more about his dead parents and being lied to than pitying someone who was brainwashed and/or apprehending the guy who killed a whole bunch of innocent civilians and diplomats (somehow knowing about his trauma and it being that powerful).
- Watch the fallout ensue, revel a little in it, and then leave prematurely to bid adieu, in wintry solitude, to the mortal world.
Zemo’s plan was concocted based on the release of the HYDRA files by Black Widow following the fall of that organization and SHIELD, two years prior. Despite acknowledging that there are millions of these files, and that most of them are encrypted, Zemo was somehow able to decipher the ones he needed to discover the existence of the footage that shows Bucky assassinating Tony’s parents in 1991. Before Black Widow or Tony Stark – the latter of whom, I’ll remind you, has technology that can crack vast amounts of encrypted files in a matter of minutes to hours, and who has already demonstrated that he’s really into digging up secrets from the likes of SHIELD. (You haven’t forgotten Avengers (2012), right?)
Zemo might be a former military intelligence agent, but there’s a lot going against him being able to pull even this much off. Like, he even says that it wasn’t easy to decipher the files, which implies it’s not as simple as creating a Ctrl + F filter system to search for the key words that will lead him to his magic bullet. And that’s not even getting into the utterly perplexing decisions on the part of HYDRA here. But we’ll get there. Starting with…
1. Find someone who can lead him to where the video tape is.
Our introduction to Zemo shows him visiting the house of the HYDRA Colonel who was in charge of The Winter Solider back in the day, (now in hiding) and knocking him out, then interrogating him. This was his original method to try and acquire the intel concerning Mission Report 1991 and/or the whereabouts of the video tape containing the Stark assassination footage. Yet…
For a ‘man of patience’, he sure seems rather hasty in abandoning his interrogation of said HYDRA agent, who he’s pegged to have the info he’s after, and who doesn’t even act like he doesn’t know what Zemo is talking about. Maybe if Zemo had actually kept at this, he could have made progress and gotten something out of him. Maybe not, but it’s the lack of perseverance here that’s odd (to put it mildly). He’d rather go with a much MUCH riskier and overly-convoluted Plan B than find other ways to get Red Beret to talk. Doesn’t seem like a patient man to me. Also, goes against him not wanting to resort to bloodier methods, like killing innocent civilians and diplomats. (Maybe he’s actually just a psychopath. I mean, he doesn’t seem all that torn up about that stuff at any point – just offers a half-hearted apology to T’Challa about murdering his father. The rest of the story seems to clash with this idea, though.)
The existence of the tape, by the way, hinges on not only incompetence from Bucky, in allowing himself to get captured on camera, despite supposedly being one of the greatest assassins in the world, and HYDRA, for deciding to steal and KEEP the footage – instead of destroying it – for some weird, unexplained reason (I guess they hated the Starks so much that they just wanted to rewatch the assassination over and over again, for the lolz), but also a very conveniently and strangely placed security camera near some random dirt road. (The HYDRA stuff beats that, though.)
If Bucky had surveyed the area – like you might expect a good assassin to – he would have noticed this and decided to do something about it ahead of time. Also, just wow, what a sloppy job coincidence to crash and kill the Starks where the only damn security cam in the woods is.
This also requires Howard Stark to lack any security accompanying him and pick a long solitary route as his means of getting to his destination (which, if Tony’s memory is correct, is Washington/The White House). You’d think he would have some experience with being targeted and want to take precautions to protect himself and his wife, since he was a founding member of SHIELD and served in the military. I guess old age really caught up to him when he left the house that day.
How Zemo even knew the 1991 mission report was what he needed to make the Avengers fall apart, but not enough to know specifically what it was about until he got The Winter Soldier in a chatty mood, despite being aware of Howard Stark and when he would have died… is anyone’s guess. If he wasn’t able to infer the connection there, what made him think this plan would work? If he was able to infer the connection there, why did he bother with the plan then? Could he not have just directed Tony into finding it himself?
I mean, that opens up the issue of there being a lot more room for others to stop Tony and calm him down from revenge and becoming the Yoko of group. But it’s also devoid of risk to Zemo and doesn’t entail treading a yards-long razor-wire tightrope of a path just to maybe find something that you can use to destroy the Avengers.
2. Build a bomb and detonate it at the UN.
We don’t see Zemo making a bomb, but you’re not getting something like that past customs, so he’d at least need to build one in the area he aims to use it. He’d also need to get his hands on some rare and mighty powerful materials for such a small device to cause such a massive explosion that appears to defy physics. Running with the unlikely case that such a thing exists in this world, that sounds like an incredibly expensive and time-consuming process. And it could have easily been smoothed over if Zemo had been working with a demolitions expert with access to clearly special materials and a notably amazing skill in bomb assembly. Alas, he is working alone.
Zemo specifically targeted a UN meeting for a bomb-flavoured frame job to get the world looking for Bucky and flush him out of hiding, knowing he couldn’t do so on his own. If he already knew where he was he wouldn’t have needed to do this, because Mr. Barnes is already a wanted criminal. He’d just need to somehow tip off Cap about his location. Remember, bombing the UN is a super risky thing to do. Zemo is operating alone. This is an insane gamble and shouldn’t work. The movie makes no attempt to go through why it works, just that it does – even though that’s not a given.
Also, doing this makes Bucky a lot more wary and suspicious of everyone. Which makes sense, considering he’s caught the news about having a global manhunt placed on him. But it also increases the chances of him getting shot and killed, which nearly happens (and honestly should have happened) when the JCSC is sent after him.
If Bucky dies before the whole reveal to Tony, there’s nothing left for Zemo to exploit to push the Avengers into breaking up, because a third party killing Steve’s friend so early can’t rile up the two leading members enough to duke it out and split apart (never mind kill each other). The whole thing is a beyond stupidly bad idea. And if you believe he had knowledge of Bucky’s whereabouts before this step, then please, enlighten me why he would bother with it then. Because, as I see it, that would make it pointless on top of being incredibly foolhardy.
3. Get caught on camera disguised as The Winter Soldier to frame Bucky Barnes and ferret him out of hiding for much easier finding.
…banking on the incredible luck that no one else had been able to find him in that time. Despite Barnes being shown to look more or less the same as when we last saw him later in this movie – strongly suggesting he hasn’t been bothering with a proper disguise all this time.
And that’s not even getting into the red flags his face and metal arm would set off in his attempts to travel across countries. No one wonders how he managed this, nor is it addressed at all, much less reasonably explained. If he’d simply been shown properly disguised, perhaps without his metal arm (which could have been kept hidden somewhere), I think that would have been a sufficient indicator to smooth this questionable gap over.
I’m also not entirely convinced that Zemo would be able to get away in this situation, especially considering this was him working entirely on his own here. It being his fallback plan means that he didn’t spend years or months, or weeks, or even days scoping out the place, learning the ins and outs, setting up points of sabotage (etc). No, he just showed up with a half-assed disguise and a magic bomb and somehow made use of a van to explode the place, before security bothered to do anything. Judging by the cam footage, he appears to be in a parking lot somewhere nearby, which does make it easier to buy his escape from the scene of the crime here. I’m not saying it’s impossible no one followed him, just that maybe that the writers could have done a bit more to make it believable.
The real issue here is that the bomb is detonated from street level and reaches several stories high, from across the street. Where Zemo got such an incredible explosive device is beyond me, because the movie doesn’t care to address it (not even a throwaway line!).
Also, good thing no one got a closer shot of him disguised as Bucky, or they might notice the face doesn’t look quite the same. Also, good thing the last photo of Bucky available matches what he currently looks like. Imagine if Zemo had actually expected Mister “Ghost Story” to be particularly competent at keeping out of sight, especially considering how successful he’s been in avoiding detection since SHIELD and HYDRA fell.
Zemo did this, expecting Bucky to be brought out into the open for him to be able to find and reach him, but didn’t think that he’d be killed as a result of this. He almost is when Ross sends out a squad to do precisely that (another thing that goes unaddressed, like Steve doesn’t even ask if he knew about that and what he would have done if they’d succeeded). And if said squad weren’t so incompetent at their job and knew how to keep a distance and use their guns properly, he’d absolutely be dead. And considering that Zemo’s plan hinges on Bucky being alive for Tony to lose control and try his hand at murderous revenge… how do you suppose he’d react knowing he’s already dead? What do you think Bucky dying here means for Zemo’s plan?
4. Predict Bucky’s capture and detainment points, as well as learn who will be conducting his psychological evaluation, and when the meeting will be taking place.
Somehow Zemo predicted where Bucky would be spotted and captured, and where he would be temporarily detained. That or he got extremely lucky that the detainment occurred in the same country as him. Seems like he discovered it and flew there to me, though. He then also somehow learned of the psychiatrist assigned to Bucky for a psychological evaluation, and reached him mid-journey. I can believe a former intelligence officer would know how to do something like that, it’s just a shame we don’t see him do anything to get that information. (But okay, time constraints.) On top of all that, he also had to squeeze in time to learn some Russian and build an EMP device.
That’s quite a narrow window of time to do a lot of things that are really difficult and could easily go wrong, especially when lacking any insiders to aid him, and double especially when going solo. But it’s also not at all made clear how Zemo foresaw any of it. How could he possibly know Bucky would be brought to Berlin? If he was incarcerated by a different agency in another country, then what’s Zemo’s fallback? How’s he going to get there in time?
And if he misses this interview, there’s a pretty high chance of Bucky being moved to The Raft right after. (I mean, the Avengers are put in there – you think they weren’t going to send Bucky to that place? Think of all the wasted taxpayer money if they don’t get to use that thing on even one enhanced criminal!) It is very unlikely Zemo knows about that, so he can’t be operating on a sense of urgency to get to Bucky here so as to prevent that huge obstacle of getting potentially permanently cut off from him. He’s not throwing caution to the wind because he needs to reach Bucky now or else his chances of getting in the same room with him again become a whole lot slimmer as a result of transference to The Raft. He’s doing it because he’s read the script and knows he’ll make it out just fine.
Also, how fortunate that the psychiatrist turned out to be someone of the same sex and roughly similar appearance. (Not that that should be enough to successfully impersonate his way into the facility.) Consider the not unlikely probability of a non-Caucasian male or woman being the one selected to give Bucky his psych eval, and what that would mean for Zemo’s plan. I’m curious how he’d rework it were that the case.) Also, good thing that the task force sent to kill Bucky were total incompetents that couldn’t shoot the broadside of a barn. Imagine if they actually landed a kill shot on him. That sure would have been quite the hitch for the Sokovian revenge-seeker, huh. It seems Zemo hit the jackpot in the superpower lottery, since he drew Reading Ahead in the Script as his extraordinary ability.
5. Find said psychiatrist, kill him, and hide the body, without getting spotted.
This is fine.
6. Build an EMP device and have a courier transport it to a power plant near the intelligence agency where Bucky will be held for later activation during the psych meeting.
Somehow Zemo successfully delivered an EMP to a power station connected to the facility he needed to get into to talk to Bucky. Somehow the large box containing said EMP wasn’t immediately inspected, nor turned away, despite being a substantially big and unscheduled package. Somehow Mr. Revenge convinced a courier to deliver this package, somehow knowing he’d only be met with a lazy custodian (instead of actual security) who wouldn’t bat an eye (until it’s too late) and be willing to accept such a thing at a power plant.
Seriously, Zemo is shown to be doing all this with the help of but one other person who’s sole role is to be his unwitting accomplice and deliver a package for him. Outside of that, he’s working all on his own. And the idea that it’s THIS easy for him to just deliver an EMP to a place like this, despite all odds and common sense, is not only bonkers crazy but goes entirely unexplained. It’s just sheer dumb luck (writer fiat) that it works.
And let’s pretend that the courier knows what he’s doing. Why is he even helping Zemo in the first place? We can assume he was bribed, I guess. But why would he take such a stupid risk for jail time (or worse) in attempted sabotage of a power grid (and government facility) over what is likely chump change (relative to the task) here? What’s Zemo offering him that’s worth it in his eyes? Seems like a key detail being omitted here. He probably wouldn’t be informed of the details, but the whole deal ought to have him questioning things, no?
You don’t just enter a place like this with a large package and not wonder why you weren’t told what was in it, or expect the people there to receive it without any checks or concerns. Which, had they done, would have led to him being sent away with the package. Meaning: there is no EMP where Zemo needs it to be, nor notification sent to Zemo that it’s in place, and thus, no power outage disabling the cameras. (Which shouldn’t make a difference helping him here anyway.)
7. Attend the psychological evaluation ‘disguised’ as Dr. Broussard to get close to Bucky to be able to reactivate the Winter Soldier and receive the mission report.
Somehow Zemo got past security with a terrible disguise and no one there was able to (read: bothered to) tell him apart from the real psychiatrist called in (Doctor Theo Broussard).
This is one of the biggest flaws in Zemo’s plan. No one bothers to do a photo comparison of him. No one cares to properly ID the person coming in to interview the veteran assassin and alleged terrorist. In the real world, this would not fly, especially in an intelligence agency. In a world where SHIELD – a branch of the government – is revealed to have been overtaken by super Nazis, who made up a secret organization within said branch of government for decades, and who recently caused the equivalent of multiple 9/11s in Washington… Well, what do you think? That security would stay the same, or somehow get worse? Or that it would tighten; be increased, with personnel made more wary? HYDRA agents who haven’t been caught yet are still a concern and could be anywhere, anyone. They wouldn’t just casually accept that the person walking in here is Dr. Broussard. A simple background check absolutely would happen, photographs and all.
Also, Zemo doesn’t appear to be aware about the fracturing going on between the Avengers from the Accords, nor Vision being assigned to keep an eye on Wanda in the Avengers compound. So, it’s a wonder what he’s thinking going in here, lacking the certainty that those two wouldn’t be here as well.
I mean, how would he even find out about that? It clearly wasn’t made public news, since even Cap didn’t know until Tony brought it up in their meeting post-Bucky capture (pre-breakout). And not knowing that means he should try to account for the possibility of Vision being there. You know, the guy who can fly and phase through walls and is nearly indestructible? Yeah, he doesn’t appear to have a countermeasure for that. I mean, I don’t know HOW you plan for that, but you sure don’t go in expecting it to be a non-issue. So, he was really winging it with this plan.
8. Set off the EMP to disable the cameras, then use the activation phrase from the Red HYDRA book on Bucky to revert him back to his Winter Soldier persona to get the needed intel on the tape, bunker, and super soldiers. Then order him to break out of the facility, so that he will be free to reach the bunker later.
How lucky that the security would be so bad at their jobs to not enforce standard procedure that would prohibit Zemo from bringing in his electronic tablet, which seems to be how he’s notified about and activates the EMP.
Yeah, why would anyone working at a government facility care to check what visitors are carrying in there? Not like anyone’s made malicious use of technology like that before.
Also lucky that Bucky wouldn’t try to resist the brainwashing by covering his ears, looking away, and screaming until Zemo’s recitation of the activation phrase stopped and was then soon made to leave after the inevitable arrival of the personnel there. Also lucky that the cell Bucky would be detained in would be easy enough for him to escape from, but not so easy that he could escape from it before Zemo could juuuust finish the activation phrase.
The EMP is pointless anyway, because it’s just to take out the cameras and help avoid intervention from the JCTC during that very short window of time when the power is out and he’s all alone with Bucky. There should be guards inside with Zemo, regardless – who would prevent him from finishing/reading out the activation phrase to Bucky. You think they’d just stand there and let him say all that? Especially upon hearing him abruptly switch to Russian, all of a sudden? And especially especially when they see Bucky’s agitated reaction to the words?
And even in the extremely unlikely case that they do, the second Bucky breaks out of his little prison, they’re shooting him down. (Heck, they may radio out an order to gas his cell before he even gets that far.) And then ‘Dr. Broussard’ becomes a target for detainment and questioning himself. RIP Zemo’s plan. And even allowing for a reason that might justify them remaining outside, they’d still be nearby, and rush in right after the blackout. No real difference in that situation. Their slowness in getting inside here is absurd and not at all accounted for by the story.
9. Cross fingers for a set of very specifically incompetent security at the agency.
This one extends to the previous and next steps.
So… Zemo predicted that the security in this facility would be both overly lax in leaving him unattended with the detainee while in the possession of an (unchecked) electronic tablet, yet also unusually severe in confining them together in a locked room (and in such a way that opening the door from the outside would not be a quick and easy effort), while also remaining exceptionally distant from the room accommodating a distinguished psychiatrist (VIP) and an infamously dangerous super soldier assassin? Really? He thought that would happen? And… it DID!?
Moving along…
So he got ridiculously lucky that the guards didn’t immediately enter the room when the power went out. (Not like the safety of their VIP for the day would be of chief concern to them or anything.) We don’t even hear anyone making movement outside the door, never mind try to get it open, or ask ‘Dr. Broussard’ if he’s okay. If the door is supposed to be locked because the power went out and it runs on keycards that can’t work now, then the movie does fuck all to suggest that. It even contradicts it by having the door be left wide open by the time Cap makes it to the room (‘sleepy’ guards are all spread out on the floor right outside too). Furthermore, why on earth would you lock the doctor in with the dangerous assassin!? What if there’s an emergency and he needs to escape quickly, you dolts!
He then got even more lucky that Bucky wasn’t get killed by the security, of which – for some miraculous reason – only a few of whom decided to head down to him handling guns; the others stupidly pick batons as their weapon of choice. Against the superhuman cyborg assassin. (Boy, is it a good thing every damn no-namer with a long-range weapon is totally inept at their job and/or have unacknowledged death wishes.)
He then got an extra dose of luck in the form of no one stopping, following, or looking for him (‘Dr. Broussard’/Zemo) after the power outage – despite him being (disguised as) a distinguished VIP, who you’d think the people in charge would care to prioritize the locating and safety of.
Guess what happens if they actually bothered to focus on him here? Zemo would be stuck there and they’d eventually figure out he’s not who he’s pretending to be. Guess what happens if any of the authorities remember who the last person to talk to Bucky before the breakout was, wonder where he went, and actually bothered to do something about the missing psychiatrist? Well, let’s just say that there’d be a lot more investigation and a lot less airport fights.
No precedence is or ever was set to believe that the security in the places Zemo targets would be this feeble or otherwise (somehow) weakened. And there’s never a moment of doubt from Zemo about any of this. He seems to be completely confident it will work.
10. Hope against hope Bucky makes it out alive and undetained, and also doesn’t kill Tony or Steve.
If Bucky fails to break out and is killed, Cap can’t learn what he needs to from him to know where to find Zemo. How do you suppose Zemo’s plan plays out if none of the people he wants to follow him show up, and the key person to tear them apart is already dead?
So it’s lucky that…
…the guards wouldn’t accompany Zemo in the room during the evaluation, despite the metal-armed man being considered a huge danger and known assassin (Guess what happens to his plan if they won’t let them be alone together?)
…Bucky wouldn’t get killed or apprehended by any of the Avengers on the way out (Man, imagine if they knew how to keep their distance and use their weapons more effectively. World’s greatest heroes, folks.)
…that Bucky wouldn’t kill Tony or Cap on the way out (He gets MIGHTY close to doing this, by the way. In part, because Tony is a moron who closed the distance – pointlessly endangering his own life – when that wasn’t necessary at all.)
…that there wouldn’t be snipers on the higher floors aiming down to where Bucky is, or ANY people waiting at the helipad
…that the helicopter was still there
…that Bucky would suddenly manifest teleportation powers to escape T’Challa, after falling and landing in a manner where he clearly wouldn’t be able to get up and out of sight so quickly
…that T’Challa wouldn’t rush to the roof to cut off/catch up to Bucky (or even check the stairs), despite seeing him heading in that direction (T’Challa is very fast, by the way – as proven from both his first two encounters chasing down and fighting Bucky.)
…that no one else would beat Bucky to the helipad or notice him on the stairs (despite Bucky to slowly stomping his way up the steps. Why is he taking his sweet ass time getting to the roof when the place is on high alert for him? You’d think Zemo would order him to be more careful and swift in escaping.)
11. Hope against hope Steve is able to make it out and catch up to him to learn about Zemo’s plans and follow him (with Bucky) – while also being the only one to do so.
Quite lucky that no one but Steve successfully followed Bucky to the rooftop (despite Black Panther getting pretty damn close and only losing him thanks to Bucky teleporting. Even then, he saw him heading UP earlier, so he should have a pretty good idea of where to go, but doesn’t because… Bucky used confusion magic on him, or something).
Also rather lucky that Bucky didn’t kill or K.O. Steve earlier. He knocked him down an elevator shaft, and Steve took some serious hits from that long fall. The least that would do is knock him unconscious. Fortunately for Zemo, though, he recovers quickly, climbs out, and somehow finds Bucky again. Without anyone following him either.
12. Hope against hope no one looks over the camera footage and puts two and two together about “the doctor”, the timing of the power outage, the interview, and Bucky breaking out.
Sharon Carter shared Steve’s suspicious about “the doctor”, yet she didn’t do anything for over twenty-four hours after the breakout, despite being in a position of authority to at least get people there looking over the footage from the cameras. Had she bothered to do so before or shortly after the EMP went off, then it wouldn’t have taken long to verify whether the “Dr. Broussard” who walked through the front door was the real deal or not. Easy evidence to show the others (especially the skeptical ones) that there was an impersonator, and the timing of his arrival as well as the power outage with Bucky’s breakout stinks of a plot. The green light to go find and extradite him would be given. (Also, the security staff is so fired after that.)
There was twenty-four hours to accomplish this, and Sharon didn’t even try. A lot of time and needless conflict could have been avoided had she remembered that she had the power to do that. But it’s all the more bizarre that no one does this. You’d think it’d be protocol to check this sort of thing following an event like this. We’re talking, what, minutes of work here? It’s not rocket science.
13. Hope against hope a third party will care to and be able to help Steve and Bucky get to the bunker in time.
It sure was lucky that Falcon regained consciousness super quickly (in case you forgot, Bucky super tossed him at his cell and knocked him out) and, not only wasn’t stopped from leaving the building (despite prior scenes being rather explicit that he and Steve were to be confined there), but also isn’t followed on his way out to rendezvous with Cap and Bucky in the warehouse. You’d think a spy agency might have a few folk there who’d be good at that sort of thing and care to track the people who they consider hot targets.
Steve and Sam were already on thin ice with them for protecting Bucky. Imagine if they actually cared to do their job and keep tabs on these guys. (No, a power outage and the Winter Soldier breaking out is not enough chaos to prevent the entire staff there from doing this. If anything, that would be be all the more reason to do it. You want to prioritize recapturing the Winter Solider because you consider him a terrorist deserving of a kill order and a huge threat. Steve is now missing too. Oh hey, there’s Cap’s buddy, Falcon, rushing out the front door! I wonder where he’s go-)
Sharon is the key to getting Steve and Sam’s gear back to them. (How she managed this without arousing suspicion and/or outright prevention from leaving with the equipment is beyond me. I am open to ideas though.) This is crucial for them getting to the bunker. How else would they have gotten their weapons and costumes? (What’s Cap going to do in civvies sans shield against five winter soldiers – the threat he’s expecting to face when he reaches the bunker?)
Also, is Zemo privy to the relationship of Steve and Sharon? That doesn’t seem like public knowledge, and we’re never shown him spying on them, nor does it seem like he would have the time or opportunity to do so across the timeline of the movie. Is the throwaway line near the end about him studying Cap for a long time supposed to be sufficient explanation for how he would know this? Or are we supposed to handwave it ourselves with ‘He’s a former intelligence officer’? If the rest of the movie was working fine, I probably wouldn’t even question this. I’ve just lost too much trust in the storyteller at this point, so I’m dubious of nearly everything. (There are things besides Zemo and his plan that played a bigger role in causing this, so don’t think this is all minor nitpicks I’m fussing over while neglecting a far greater amount of good stuff around it. Maybe we’ll get to those other parts someday, but not here or anytime soon. Just thought I’d mention that.)
14. Hope against hope no one will stop either of them from reaching the bunker.
Sure is a good thing for Zemo that there weren’t any trackers placed on Cap and Falcon’s equipment. Would have probably made for a much earlier and smoother capture. Maybe you see this as a reach of a criticism – and fine, if that’s how you see it. But I think Tony would want to attach some devices on the super advanced, highly expensive, and, in the case of Cap’s shield, indispensably valuable, pieces of technology that the team charges into battle with, and could potentially lose. That aside, you’d think maybe the intelligence agency might want to slap on trackers of their own onto them as an additional security measure for keeping track of them, were they to somehow get stolen or lost.
I’ve decided against covering the airport fight here, even though it ties in with the incredible streak of luck for Zemo’s plan to work out the way it does (the way he was so sure it would). The short of it is: Vision could easily keep Cap’s team from leaving by destroying the quinjet or choking them out. Which is why he’s made to hover off-screen for the majority of the brawl. And I don’t see why Iron Man couldn’t have locked Steve out from using the quinjet, either. Or used that EMP dart thingy he disabled the helicopter with.
Also lucky for Zemo that Cap’s refusal to sign the Accords would tick off Tony and open up a fracture in the Avengers that would lead to a heated mistrust between them, strongly affecting their decision-making, and causing them to act stupidly irrational overly-emotional and madly antagonistic towards each other.
How the Avengers respond to the Accords is completely out of Zemo’s hands. If they were all on the same page, or at least more understanding of their disagreements, then they’d be cooperative rather than stubbornly opposed about the whole Bucky/Doctor Broussard/bunker thing. Which would mean no airport fight, but instead a unified Avengers heading there. Meaning not just Tony, Cap, and Bucky, but other members who could hold back Tony after watching the tape. Assuming, Vision wouldn’t just apprehend Zemo before even getting that far. And again, Zemo doesn’t appear to be aware about that going on, so I’m not convinced by the defense that he was being cleverly opportunistic here and exploiting their tensions. Where is it shown that he knows about it? How could he know?
Tony: ‘You expect me to believe that? Who in their right mind would take THAT stupid of a risk? How could he have possibly gotten past security? Unless, is it another super?’
Steve: ‘I… don’t know, actually. I mean, you’d assume that, right? Otherwise… yeah, it… Look, as crazy as it sounds, and whatever our differences, you’ve got to believe me! I have intel and evidence! We can clear everything up on the way to Siberia.’
15. Hope against hope Tony will follow, without any other Avengers in tow.
Lucky that Tony didn’t bring Vision along with him to the bunker. That blast door being nigh-impenetrable suddenly stops mattering when confronted with someone who can phase through objects.
16. Hope against hope they will show up around the same time as each other to all be there for the tape reveal.
How Tony arrived at the bunker shortly after Cap and Bucky did (before they found Zemo), despite having to fly back with an injured Rhodey from Leipzig to New York and then from NY to the Raft, and then from the Raft to Siberia… in a helicopter and his Iron Man suit… even though the quinjet is way faster, and a straight journey from Leipzig to Siberia would take significantly less time than that… is truly a marvel to ponder.
17. Hope against hope they don’t try using any special technology that might be able to get through the blast door protecting self (Zemo), or immediately start looking for another way into the shielded little room, or contacting reinforcements.
Would Iron Man’s super sharp red energy beams not suffice in cutting through it? He doesn’t even TRY to use them! (On the blast door, I mean. Blocking off Bucky from escaping, instead of killing him, though? Yeah, he’s got no problem using it there.)
18. Hope against hope that Tony cares more about his dead parents and being lied to than sympathizing with someone who was brainwashed and/or apprehending the guy who killed a whole bunch of innocent civilians and diplomats.
Any ideas how Zemo predicted or knew about Tony’s trauma and how he would react here? I don’t think lashing out like this is the normal behaviour, especially considering these movies haven’t exactly being making a strong case for him caring that much about his parents, and also the fact that they’ve been dead for about fifteen years twenty-five years. It’s not exactly a fresh wound, and he knows Bucky was brainwashed (yet says he doesn’t care). Zemo needs Tony to NOT be understanding and level-headed after discovering Bucky was the one who killed his parents, in spite of knowing that he was a brainwashed puppet.
If we are to accept that Tony cares about his parents to that extent, though, then he should have definitely known HYDRA was involved in their deaths from obsessively searching through and decrypting their files. I think he’d do it anyway, but now there’s the extra emotional factor on top of it. He has previously demonstrated a mistrustful attitude toward and bold investigation into SHIELD, he’d want to look more into the secrets of the organization after the news story about HYDRA’s takeover and fall broke. So, yeah, quite fortunate he stopped caring about all that for years following both the battle in New York and the Helicarrier crashes in Washington.
Does Zemo even know about the feud going on between Steve and Tony? It seems like a key piece of information to form this plan around, but there doesn’t appear to be a clear indication that he is aware of that, nor how he could possibly know about it. He literally interrupted the meeting that would have announced which Avengers signed the Accords with a bomb, and the movie doesn’t care to show or tell us how he would have found out about it otherwise. So I don’t know what exactly he was counting on to get the Avengers to split apart into the three person combo he needed them to arrive in, if he wasn’t even in the know of there already being something pushing them apart, and in such a particular way that it would lead to specifically Steve, Tony, and Bucky showing up. (Black Panther too, but he clearly wasn’t part of the plan.)
19. Watch the fallout ensue, revel a little in it, and then die shortly after.
It seemed like he planned to kill himself to reunite with his family in the afterlife, or because he couldn’t go on living without them. Otherwise, I’m not sure why he was outside listening to the tape with a gun in his hand. He shouldn’t be aware Black Panther is even there, yet he’s unsurprised when he appears. I don’t think he was attempting suicide as a means to prevent capture here, but it is a bit of a muddied situation.
So, to recap: Zemo needed Cap to be in the Berlin facility and reach Zemo AFTER he’d finished reactivating the Winter Soldier (NOT before – if before, he’s screwed) so he could drop cryptic motivation bombs on him and mention wanting to see an empire fall, knowing that Bucky will help fill in the gaps for him to Cap about the means to do that later (five super soldiers)… somehow. Which is a red herring to get them and (somehow) Iron Man to find him in a bunker in Siberia. It’s not a stretch for Zemo to think that Bucky would know about it and tell Cap in and of itself – but it is a wonder how he’s so confident that they will be able to get alone together post-breakout for that to happen.
Also, Tony is the key element here and Zemo has no interaction with him before the bunker. He has no control over whether he follows them or not, or makes it there in time. It’s more likely that Cap and Bucky would have gotten there well ahead of Stark, found the dead super soldiers, discovered Zemo in his blast-proof room, and then looked for a way inside. Failing that, they’d radio for reinforcements – probably local law enforcement, and engineers who could open the door. (Though it’s more likely they’d be stopped by Tony’s team instead. Then it’s off to the Raft, and you have to wonder what Zemo would do then. You know, assuming Cap wouldn’t bother providing a more detailed explanation of the situation to persuade Tony to work together. All he says to try and convince him is, “Tony, the doctor, he’s behind all of it.” No mention of the five super soldiers, ‘the doctor’ wanting to see an empire fall, the red book, the camera footage and the actual Broussard, nothing. What a brick.)
Zemo is counting on less than a handful of Avengers caring to notice and stop him. Meaning he needs Ross and the folks over at the intelligence agencies to ignore him, security pretty much everywhere to disregard his questionable character, and the other Avengers to remain unconvinced by Steve’s claims about him. He’s not the one creating the crucial tension that’s making the Avengers distrust each other; they’re doing that on their own (out of sheer stubborn stupidity), and in large part because of their differences over the Sokovia Accords; which he had no hand in. These things just happen independently, for no apparent reason.
When we get to the revelation stage at the end of the story, no one’s wondering how Zemo did anything. (Just why.) This was the last chance the writers had to salvage some semblance of explanations that might help rationalize Zemo’s actions and satisfy our lingering questions. And they blew it. The writers spent all this effort and made us sit through over two hours of frustratingly vague scenes building up this mystery, only to then at the end shrug and say, ‘Meh. It’s just a movie. Don’t think too hard about it. “Patience and experience” is all you need to know. The actual hows and whens don’t really matter.’ Fantastic.
The writers didn’t even try to present Zemo as though he’s supposed to be an impetuous planner. That could have smoothed over at least some of this. (Theoretically.) But alas! The whole thing is played entirely straight, and his outstandingly fragile plans not only do NOT end in disaster for him, but none of it is recognized as the luckiest of breaks ever. Nor is it played for laughs. (Unfortunately, in a movie like this, I doubt even a well-told joke or scene brimming with comical undercurrent could salvage such a massive unintentional absurdity, since the rest of it wants to be taken mighty seriously.)
Zemo is the main antagonist for this plot and is meant to embody the failures of the Avengers come back to bite them. That’s pretty hard to reconcile with such nonsense, and really detracts from the bulk of what’s going on, considering he’s the driving force acting against the heroes for about 60-70% of the movie. Zemo’s meant to be the Big Threat to the Avengers here, and yet he’s saddled with this ludicrous scheme. Despite his background and presentation, his actions are inconceivable and sheer folly.
Aside: Worst of all, the reactions from the others concerning Zemo’s antics plot line hurt not only their character, but also the themes that the Accords teased us with near the beginning. Cap’s established as skeptical of another governing body managing the Avengers, yet doesn’t point out the awful incompetence of any of the security or intelligence personnel. Tony’s all for them, but doesn’t put up a defense for this, or even take note of it. (You’d think it’d be pretty damning evidence to shake his confidence on taking orders from these clowns.) And no one else notices or addresses any of this either.
To draw an analogy: Zemo has decided to take a several mile long journey down an obviously icy slope, wearing plastic and leather soled shoes; while trying to take undesignated shortcuts by way of fast long strides; with his hands in his pockets. And neither the road signs warning him NOT to take this route, nor the fact that it was the only one covered in oil, deterred him from trekking it. He is moving down the most treacherous of paths with reckless abandon. One slip is all it takes for him to fall. Just because it worked out for him in the end does not mean that this sort of plan of action was wise or at all intelligent. If anything, it suggests one of the most insistent cases of divine protection within a single movie. (Not even The Adjustment Bureau can compete, and it’s intentional there.)
In order for this plan to work, Zemo would need super high-level precognitive powers. And a guardian angel that shoots Stupid Darts at everyone to make them act in just the way he needs them to. And another guardian angel to cast Plot Armour spells on them to keep them from killing each other.
But maybe I’m wrong and it all makes sense. (I did, after all, prioritize meeting this self-imposed deadline, to match the mission report date, over refining my argument.) Please, point out what I might have missed or misunderstood to help explain the amazing machinations Baron Zemo devised and was able to successfully carry out.
I may do a follow-up at some point covering whatever rebuttals and explanations I catch and care to respond to. Until then, I want to get back to writing about things I actually like. Whether you agree or disagree with me on this, if you’ve read this far, you’re awesome and I appreciate it.
Related Reading
Captain America: Civil War – (An old piece from 2016 on the Accords and themes of the movie by the late Shamus Young)
“Captain America: Civil War” Scuttles Its Thematic Weight in Favor of Spectacle (Also from 2016)
One final note: Southpaw is cooking up a huge video that will thoroughly explore the entire movie. I can’t vouch for when exactly it will be coming out, but when it does I will edit in the link to it here.
Phantom Threads 